Pre-Mortem

Your plan has already failed. This is the memo explaining why.

A post-mortem written from the future, before you execute. Your plan has already failed — this is the memo explaining why. Get the most likely failure modes with probability ratings, the fatal assumption you're making, the warning signs you'll ignore, and the one thing that actually determines the outcome.

Overview

PreMortem runs a cognitive inversion: assume your plan has already failed, then work backward to explain why. This technique — used by NASA, military planners, and venture investors — surfaces risks that forward-thinking misses.

How to use it

1. Describe your plan, project, or decision in specific terms
2. Select the plan type — startup, career move, project, relationship, etc.
3. Add timeline and key stakes if relevant
4. Read the failure narrative — the memo from your future self
5. Focus on the Fatal Assumption and the Assumptions Autopsy — these are the most actionable outputs

Example

Scenario: Launching a newsletter as a side business

What you do: Describe the newsletter topic, target audience, monetization plan, and time you can commit

Result: The memo: 'We failed because we optimized for content quality instead of distribution. We assumed great writing would spread. It didn't. Fatal assumption: quality = growth. Warning sign ignored: open rate declining month 2, no referral system built. The one thing: distribution strategy had to come before content strategy.'

Tips

• The more specific your plan, the more specific and actionable the failure modes
• The Fatal Assumption is the most important output — test it before you execute
• Use the Assumptions Autopsy to build a pre-launch checklist
• Run this on plans you're most excited about — excitement is when blind spots are largest